Everyone at work knows I’m a baseball fiend. I’m a stat head, and I love just looking through the numbers. It’s what makes baseball baseball in my book. So for Christmas, my boss got me a book of 2012 projections. I was stoked to look through in and I thought I might post what it had to say about some Reds. It gives brief projections of stats and a little blurb about each player and puts a touch of fantasy baseball advice with it.

Jose Arredondo: 5-3, 58.0 IP, 48 K, 3.54 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Skill set is pretty much the same as it was before Tommy John surgery in December 2009. Success against righties is his primary calling card these days. Misses a lot of bats with high K/9, but also misses the strike zone frequently. Until he gets the walks under control, he won’t be taking a larger role.

Bronson Arroyo: 12-11, 203.0 IP, 116 K, 4.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

K/9 and BB/9 have dropped for 3 straight years; he’s pretty much pitching to contact these days. At the same time, rising fly ball rate begot a rising HR per fly ball percentage which begot a rising ERA. It’s that simple. He’s not as good as 2010 (ERA helped by BABIP), nor as bad as 2011. Expected ERA says split the difference and call it 2012.

Homer Bailey: 10-7, 160.0 IP, 126 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Missed a couple of months with shoulder issues. While K/9 dropped a bit, the good news is that BB/9 has improved each of the past 4 years. About half his starts were quality starts and he had some disasters. Seeds of a solid starter are here- as they have been for the past 7 years. Expect a sub-4.00 ERA, finally.

Bill Bray: 4-3, 44.0 IP, 42 K, 3.68 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Knocked more than a run off his ERA from 2010, thanks to keeping the ball in the park a little more and stranding a few more baserunners. But skills-wise, the 2 years were not that different. Fly ball tendency makes him a bit of a risk, especially in an unkind venue, so expect some ERA volatility.

Jay Bruce: 566 AB, 82 R, 31 HR, 88 RBI, 7 SB, .260/.335/.485

Gaudy HR/RBI totals make 2011 look like a breakout, but those were driven by gains in playing time, not skills. Power is undeniable, but other skills are stagnant: regressed vs. LHP, K/AB remain borderline low line drive % caps BA. Still young enough to address those flaws, but next step more likely 40 HR than .280 BA.

Miguel Cairo: 197 AB, 27 R, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 3 SB, .264/.311/.381

Won utility role in 2010 on reputation of being fundamentally sound and positive clubhouse presence. Has been unexpectedly productive due to late-career BA and power gains. Lacking plus skills or upside, he is not rosterable unless Clubhouse Chemistry Rate is a category in your league.

Aroldis Chapman: 12-10, 158.0 IP, 175 K, 4.16 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Mixed periods of dominance with bouts of extreme wildness; with a first-half DL stint due tossed in. Expect some K/9 loss as he makes the transition to the rotation, but he has K’s to burn. Improvement of BB/9 and K/BB are real keys to success in that role. Transition could be bumpy, but heavy ground ball rate, huge K/9 make him a worthy gamble.

Johnny Cueto: 12-7, 183.0 IP, 134 K, 3.17 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

Season-opening shoulder inflammation, season-ending back strain cost him roughly 8 starts. When healthy, he continued recent trend of swapping strikeouts for ground ball’s, further limiting HR’s and generating career-best results. Beware K/9 treading toward danger zone, but 2010-2011 ERA’s set a nice expectation for 2012.

Zack Cozart: 390 AB, 49 R, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .240/.294/.376

There are hints of a power/speed profile at a scarce position, but warts too. K/AB is borderline, patience he showed in the lower minors hasn’t followed him up the ladder. Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow in August further clouds his outlook; though he should be ready by spring training.

Juan Francisco: 337 AB, 38 R, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 1 SB, .267/.294/.458

Spent time on the DL for calf and knee injuries, but more concerning is the utter lack of progress in modifying his free-swinging plate approach. It worked well enough for his cup of coffee in Cincinnati, but there is every reason to think he’ll be exposed by more regular work. Buy only at a discount.

Todd Frazier: 196 AB, 22 R, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 5 SB, .229/.280/.393

Despite consistent double-digit HR’s in minors, two reasons to be conservative: 1) HR per fly ball grossly inflated in small sample size in Cincinnati and 2) K/AB and speed are mediocre. Position versatility (also played 1B, OF in minors) may drive AB’s but more time in AAA likely.

Ryan Hanigan: 247 AB, 25 R, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 0 SB, .269/.355/.357

While lack of power has always limited production, it slipped even further taking expected batting average with it. Part-time receiver continues to be more valuable in OBP formats due to excellent plate skills and line drive stroke which limit his downside. He still qualifies as a “won’t hurt you” deep-league #2 catcher.

Chris Heisey: 457 AB, 66 R, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 8 SB, .251/.302/.446

Six-HR September flurry raises hopes for 2012, but K/AB struggles and unsustainable HR per fly ball rate serve as a reality check. Missed almost all of August with oblique strain; injury and fluky career vs. LHP obscure full evaluation. Power is impressive, and 2009 hints at dormant SB. But first on our wish list is 450 AB’s.

Paul Janish: 193 AB, 20 R, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB, .220/.282/.302

2010’s HR per fly ball rate and BABIP-fueled “burst” was short-lived; now it’s back to the land of .500ish OPS. Though makes good contact and shows flashes of acceptable patience, anemic power and poor SB% siphon away any shred of value. History is not kind.

Mat Latos: 12-12, 189.0 IP, 181 K, 3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Missed 1st 10 days of season with bursitis in shoulder, and his shaky 1st half fanned the flames of workload worry. But after July 1, it was 2010 all over again. Elite K/BB, solid ground ball rate, and sparkling quality starts numbers combined to set owners’ minds at peace. He came quickly, but looks to have staying power. Invest.

Mike Leake: 12-8, 181.0 IP, 124 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Good results in second season fit his growing skill set. Season-long improvement in BB/9 and K/BB, heavy ground ball rate and solid quality starts and K/9 among the positives. Age says more growth possible and his innings have been capped the past 2 seasons. Never likely to be an ace, but a valuable low-risk contributor.

Sam LeCure: 4-2, 73.0 IP, 61 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Repeated 2010’s performance as he spent most of the time in the bullpen. Improvements in BB/9 and K/9 are reflected throughout this line, and consistency suggests that he has bullpen staying power. Did miss a month with a mid-season injured forearm, but if he’s healthy and left in relief, it’s fair to use 2011 ERA as a guide.

Sean Marshall: 5-6, 3 SV, 73.0 IP, 74 K, 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Solid wire-to-wire encore to breakout 2010, with unwavering BB/9 and ground ball gains leading the way. Continues to be bulletproof vs. LHB and sufficiently tough on RHB. His HR per fly ball luck won’t last, but this is a minor quibble. Closer worthy performance suggest that his save opportunities may continue to rise. A solid RP choice in deeper leagues.

Devin Mesoraco: 193 AB, 24 R, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 1 SB, .245/.305/.409

Highly-regarded catching prospect was unable to match banner 2010 season to 2nd half struggles. But unfortunate BABIP was a mitigating factor, and power remains promising. He could open 2011 in AAA again for some finishing. A work-in-progress.

Nick Masset: 3-4, 65.0 IP, 58 K, 3.69 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

Got off to his typical lousy start (6.46 ERA at May 2), but this time a loss of K/9 prevented him from fully digging out of that hole. ERA history says he was never as good as his 2009 ERA, and performance decline suggests that his brief window of closer-worthiness has passed. We’re losing interest. Hey, we’re fickle.

Logan Ondrusek: 5-3, 65.0 IP, 41 K, 3.82 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Wasn’t really a sub-2.00 pitcher in the 1st half, skills-wise, but simply having that ERA to begin with made 2nd half implosion seem even more jarring. Thank a sore forearm for the massive BB/9 collapse, so a rebound to ’10 and 1st half of ’11 skills seems likely. Granted, that’s a rebound to being merely decent.

Brandon Phillips: 608 AB, 92 R, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 13 SB, .285/.332/.452

He’ a model of consistency, but there are a few reasons not to expect  a repeat of 2011. Expected BA shows he’s not a .300 hitter, as line drive rate should regress. He showed he still has his legs, but 2 years of subpar SB% may cut his chances to run, making double-digit steals a risky proposition.

Scott Rolen: 452 AB, 66 R, 10 HR, 68 RBI, 1 SB, .275/.330/.425

His 2011 looks bad after missing essentially half the season with shoulder woes. But skills-wise, he’s steady, with only a 2010 first half power spike as an outlier. Consistent productions mitigates the risk a bit, and we can’t rule out a full return to form. But the “F” in health is a big red flag.

Drew Stubbs: 572 AB, 85 R, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 35 SB, .246/.316/.386

Half of that power/speed combo in 2010 breakout disappeared. Assuming no hidden health causes, that was product of durability, fly ball dip, big problems vs. RHP. That’s a lot to overcome. Given K/AB and BA, has more risk than reward. Buy for speed; power & BA face an uphill battle.

Joey Votto: 571 AB, 97 R, 31 HR, 103 RBI, 8 SB, .311/.409/.551

Increasing BB% shows pitchers fear this elite hitter, and with good reason. Hit more line drives than ever, and continues to mash both RHP and LHP. Below-average speed says return to double-digit SB might prove elusive, but that’s a quibble. Power recovery sets him up well for 40+ HR.

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Just in case you were wondering what they say about our cast-off’s:

Yonder Alonso: 382 AB, 37 R, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 5 SB, .268/.335/.419

A .943 OPS for CIN suggests that after 850 AAA AB’s, he is ready to produce. Plate approach combines strong contact with some pop to form a legitimate bat. Buy the skills now, wait for the role to sort itself out.

Edinson Volquez: 6-7, 124.0 IP, 113 K, 4.28 ERA, 1.45 WHIP

Small-sample results from post-TJ sugery return in Sept. 2010 raised hopes that he had resolved long-standing control issues; poor start in 2011 ended those thoughts. Control sharpened again during summer stint in minors. K/9 and ground ball rate are in place, if the BB/9 gains stick this time, then see 2008.

Travis Wood: 3-3, 58.0 IP, 43 K, 4.54 ERA, 1.45 WHIP

Hurled a 7-inning, 4-hit gem vs. Milwaukee on April 2…and never came remotely close to that level of dominance the rest of the year. Overall, a step back after rookie success, spent more time in AAA and then came back in September in the ‘pen. Still a work in progress.

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Personally, I think some of these stats are off (Chapman’s IP come to mind). But I could live with these for the most part. Hope you all had a Merry Christmas and enjoy this post. Let’s get baseball season here ASAP now!